Thursday, April 21, 2011

One more potential trade- watch this space!

So, another day, another potential dollar.
 
The watch list is growing quite dramatically, and I am wondering whether to put some more ETF's on there, to include the gold and oil indexes.  The reason being is that unless you live in a cave, you will know that they are both trending upwards, and Gold is consistently touted as being as high as it has ever been.
 
The ETF's are great to trade options on, because the options are both affordable, and you have strike prices that are only $1 apart.  This is very important for our second strategy (LS) as it brings the tied up margin down to only $100 per contract, and your profit return is much greater.  I would rather get a $20 return from $100 margin than a $40 return from $250 margin... after all I could just buy 2 contracts at the $20 giving me a $40 return from $200 (25% return for 1 contract of $100 margin, rather than a 19% return from the 1 contract of $250 margin).  Any way, I digress...
 
The blog posts will start to get shorter as I concentrate on the good stuff... the trades and the options to be bought.
 
The watch list has pretty much doubled today - which is great, as it gives us far more potential trades to go through with.  If we get too many trades, it means we can just pick out the really good ones.  I.e the ones that we think will give the biggest returns or the ones with the least risk.
 
So our updated list today:
 
MMSI
FMCN
LULU
BIDU
BJRI
MELI
IRM
SLGN
SINA
PCLN
FOSL
ULTA
MWIV
IPGP
WLK
PTEN
CPHD
CPX
CEVA
DECK
PII
IL
CROX
 
Out of these we have had another trigger in IRM.  This stock is now way overbought.  This is on the LS strategy, so once we get confirmation that this is a viable trade (which we will probably get by today's close I predict) then we will look to do a credit spread.  So this will be fixed risk, and we will be getting credited straight away with the cash!
 
The ETF's are:
 
DIA
QQQQ
IWM
XLF
XLE
SPY
SMH
 
The DIA finally gave us confirmation, but I am passing on this trade, as I simply do not trust it at the moment as it has swung right the way to heavily overbought... With this being the case, I predict that now is not the right time to get into this with a straight call (it being on the RS) as we are likely to lose money before it appreciates.  It did take a massive gap up yesterday (which could have banked us a probably couple of dollars) but was just not worth the gamble.
 
The system I am using is very mechanical, and because of that, if the charts don't fit, then we do not trade.  As simple as that!  If anything, we have saved a couple of hundred dollars on a learning experience! 
 
The rest of the ETF's are not really tradable at the moment... there are a couple of triggers, but the trend is not very strong, so would rather avoid it.  I am in no rush to give signals out when the trends are only adequate.  I want really great triggers so that we consistently MAKE money.  I see no real point in using a scatter gun approach to this.

So that is the update today, have a great Easter weekend, and once we get back to the trading floor, we shall see how the stocks perform.  I would not be surprised to see a reduction in the possibilities of trading (i.e. less stocks reaching new highs) over the next few weeks, but we shall see how it goes.

I have been toying with the idea of only having a set number of stocks on my watch list, but that seems counter productive.  The chart dictates when these will dip presenting us an opportunity to trade, and it would be sod's law that all the ones we discount will offer the best trades in a weeks time...
 
Ultimately the watch list will get longer.  I am having a look to see what I can do to add a watch list on the side so that you can see it at a glance.  That would be very beneficial for all (so you do not have to read through all my guff to get to the good stuff!)
 
Happy Easter, and hope you have a good one!

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